(DES MOINES, IA) Kansas – a critical breadbasket for the United States and the world – suffered from a severe drought this summer, leading to lower yields of staple crops like winter wheat. As climate change continues to make these harsh growing conditions more likely, farmers will need long-term solutions to keep their farms productive and feed the world.
A new study from the Environmental Defense Fund, Kansas in 2050: a path to climate-resilient agricultural production, recommends a promising path toward greater resilience. By replacing some acres of wheat, corn and soybeans with more drought-tolerant grains, Kansas farmers can reduce water use by 12 percent and increase nutrition per acre. With groundwater levels falling and the world’s population increasing, these two measures are essential.
“We need to start taking concrete steps today to prepare Kansas farms for a hotter, drier future,” said Eileen McLellan, co-author of the report and principal scientist at EDF. “Many farmers are already taking steps to increase their resilience, including incorporating additional crops into their operations. Many more could participate in this vital transition if they had additional financial and political support to do so.
EDF, in collaboration with Two Degrees Adapt, used a set of 20 climate models to predict the impact of climate change on agricultural production and water consumption at the county level in 2050. The models found that in the mid of the century :
- The current mix of rain-fed crops in Kansas will not be sustainable due to rising temperatures and increasing water scarcity. Increasing irrigation to compensate for rainfall deficits would deplete groundwater to dangerously low levels.
- Diversifying agricultural production – replacing some current areas of wheat, corn and soybeans with oats, sorghum, rye and millet – can maintain nutritional production in a changing climate while reducing the crop water demand by 12%.
The report also summarizes findings from interviews with 10 Kansas farmers about their experiences with climate impacts and the adaptation efforts they had already begun.
According to Dr. JohnElla Holmes, executive director of the Kansas Black Farmers Association and one of the farmers interviewed, climate-smart growing practices have been a topic of discussion for farmers in the organization’s network since the 2000s.
“Healthy soils help us get through periods of drought like we experienced this summer. Many of our farmers have had great success adding sorghum and fallow periods to their crop rotations, as well as using no-till farming practices, to improve soil health and allow it to retain more soil. water. This is a way to invest in the long-term resilience of our farms,” Dr Holmes said.
The report is based on a EDF report published last yearwhich found that climate change will hamper the growth of Iowa corn, Minnesota soybean and Kansas winter wheat yields by 2030 without urgent action to make agriculture more resilient.
It is crucial that the world helps farmers maintain productive and sustainable agriculture in a changing climate. Resilient agricultural production is within our reach and will require financial and technical assistance from the public and private sectors. Work must begin now.
Join EDF and global producers at the World Food Prize Borlaug Dialogues for a conversation on ways to diversify agricultural production and increase resilience. The livestream begins Wednesday, October 25, 2023 at 1:45 p.m. CDT.
Learn more about edf.org/kansas-2050.
